Tuesday, August 05, 2008

First presidential poll to include both McKinney and Nader

At last a poll that includes Cynthia McKinney
by Jonathan Nack Tuesday Aug 5th, 2008 12:14 PM
mckinney.jpg mckinney.jpg
Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney, the Green Party's candidate for president, is currently polling at 1 percent, according to a national poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN, and reported on today by Angus Reid Global Monitor. This is the first poll reported on by Angus Reid, a poll tracking organization, to include McKinney. The poll found that 6 percent would vote for Ralph Nader (Independent/Peace and Freedom Party (in California only)), and 3 percent would vote for former Congressman Bob Barr (Libertarian Party). http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31436/seven_point_lead_for_obama_in_us_race The poll found Senator Barack Obama (Democrat) has a 4 point lead over Senator John McCain (Republican) - 46 percent to 41 percent. In previous elections, Nader has polled considerably higher than his vote total on election day. Whether that holds true this year, and if it holds true for McKinney and Barr, remains to be seen. McKinney's vote total could benefit from her being the only woman on the ballot in most states. Neither Nader nor McKinney are likely to be on the ballot in all 50 states, which is one reason their vote totals may not reach their national polling numbers. Another is that voters, fearful either Obama or McCain will win, depending on their political views, will decide against voting for a small party or independent candidate. McKinney and Barr have less name recognition than Nader, which could lead to their poll numbers increasing, as more voters learn about them. In 2004, Nader received .4 percent (466 thousand votes), Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik received .3 percent (397 thousand votes), and Green Party candidate David Cobb received .1 percent (120 thousand votes). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004 In 2000, Nader, running as the Green Party candidate received 2.7 percent, and the 2.9 million votes he received was his high water mark, while Harry Browne, the Libertarian Party Candidate, received .4 percent (384 thousand votes).http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2000 Should Nader, McKinney, or Barr receive 5 percent of the popular vote, they (or their party's nominee) would automatically have ballot status in all 50 states and receive matching federal funds in the 2012 presidential election.

The meme that 5% of the national vote will remove all ballot access restrictions is a canard. Several states have ballot access requirements that do not involve the presidential election at all and anyway, state law is in play here, not federal.
5% is a fine goal, but let's be clear about what we're up against.
Richard Winger at Ballot Access News has written on this a few times...
Please see here; http://www.ballot-access.org/2008/08/02/nader-wins-pfp-nomination/

"Richard Says:
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 am

There is no federal law that has anything to do with ballot access. Ballot access is 100% a matter of state law. Even if a new party got 99% of the national vote for its presidential candidate, it still wouldn’t be on the ballot in all states after that election. In New York, New Jersey, and Indiana it is literally impossible for a new party to become ballot-qualified in a presidential election year, neither before and after the election in that year. Pennsylvania requires registration of 15%. New Jersey requires a 10% vote for lower house of the state legislature, which is only up in odd years."
Thank you for your comment.

All Good Things,
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